La. Ranks Second for Homes at
Risk from Hurricane Storm Surge
Louisiana trails only Florida in the number of homes at risk for
damage from hurricane-driven storm surge, according to CoreLogic,
a global data analysis services firm.
In Louisiana, 738,165 single-family homes valued at $161.1 billion
are at risk for "storm-surge inundation." That's the third-highest
amount of potential home damage. In Florida, 2.5 million homes
valued at $490.4 billion are at risk.
CoreLogic also ranked metro areas by storm-surge risk. New Orleans
ranked No. 5 with 381,149 total properties valued at $85.7 billion.
Lafayette was No. 14 with 106,166 properties valued at $21.3 billion.
New York ranked third in the number of homes at risk, 466,919, but
second in value at $182.5 billion. Among metro areas, New York City
had the greatest number of total properties at risk, 687,412 valued
at $251 billion.
According to CoreLogic, more than 6.5 million homes along the Atlantic
and Gulf Coasts are at risk of storm surge inundation. Those homes are
worth nearly $1.5 trillion.
CoreLogic, a leading global property information, analytics and
data-enabled services provider, today released its 2014 storm surge
analysisfeaturing estimates on both the number and reconstruction value
of single-family homes exposed to hurricane-driven storm surge risk
within the United States. According to the findings, more than 6.5 million
homes along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts are at risk of storm surge
inundation, representing nearly $1.5 trillion in total potential
reconstruction costs. More than $986 billion of that risk is concentrated
within 15 major metro areas. This exposure could constitute significant
risk for homeowners and financial services companies, as many at-risk
homes lack protection from insurance coverage.
The analysis examined homes along the coastlines of 19 states and the
District of Columbia in the Gulf and Atlantic regions, extending as far
west as Texas and as far north as Maine. Florida ranks number one for the
highest number of homes at risk of storm surge damage, with nearly
2.5 million homes at various risk levels and $490 billion in total
potential exposure to damage. At the local level, the New York metropolitan
area, which encompasses northern New Jersey and Long Island as well,
contains not only the highest number of homes at risk for potential storm
surge damage (687,412), but also the highest total reconstruction value
of homes exposed, at more than $251 billion.
To enhance accuracy, the 2014 CoreLogic storm surge analysis has been
expanded from prior years' reports to encompass additional categories of
single-family residential structures including mobile homes, duplexes,
manufactured homes and cabins, among other non-traditional home types. The
addition of these categories, along with new construction, contributed to a
higher number of total homes identified within potential surge areas. The
values represent estimates of reconstruction costs, taking into account labor
and materials, and are based on 100-percent or total destruction of the
residential structure. Depending upon the amount of surge water from a given
storm, there may be less than 100 percent damage to the residence, which
would result in a lower realized reconstruction cost.
While scientific predictions are pointing to lower-than-normal storm activity
for 2014, the risk of significant damage to homes is a constant threat.
"Though the 2013 hurricane season will be remembered for the fact that no
storms made landfall along the U.S. coast, this reprieve from hurricane-related
damage should not lead to complacency in preparing for future storms and
the potential life-threatening conditions they can bring," said Dr. Thomas
Jeffery, senior hazard scientist for CoreLogic Spatial Solutions. "This year's
season is projected to be slightly below normal in hurricane activity, but the
early arrival of Hurricane Arthur on July 3 is an important reminder that even
a low-category hurricane or strong tropical storm can create powerful riptides,
modest flooding and cause significant destruction of property."
The 2014 analysis shows that total exposure varies significantly from state to
state given differences in population, trends in residential development,
geographic risk factors, length of coastline and other distinguishing factors.
Florida and Texas, for example, are within the top five states for number of
properties at risk primarily because of their extensive coastlines (Table 3).
Louisiana and New Jersey, on the other hand, have a smaller coastal area overall,
yet are included in the top five list as a result of relatively low elevation
that allows storm surge inundation to extend farther inland and affect more homes.
The concepts in this analysis also complement Federal Emergency Management
Agency (FEMA) flood zone information to provide a snapshot of potential damage
exposure at the property level, as many properties located outside designated
FEMA flood zones are still at risk for storm surge damage. The standard FEMA
flood zones are designed to identify areas at risk for both freshwater flooding
as well as storm surge based on the likelihood of either a 100-year or a 500-year
flood event. They do not differentiate risk based on storm severity, and as a
result, do not effectively define the total extent of the risk possible along
coastal areas.
To illustrate varying degrees of flood risk exposure, Table 6 compares homes
that are not located within FEMA 100-year floodplains against the number of
homes located in surge inundation zones, as well as those located in both surge
and FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHA). Homeowners who live outside the
FEMA flood zones typically do not carry flood insurance, given that there is no
mandate to do so, and therefore may not be aware of the potential risk storm
surge poses to their properties. Among select major metro areas, Virginia
Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC has the highest percentage of homes (86 percent)
at risk of storm surge, but not designated in a FEMA flood zone.
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD and Jacksonville, Fla. also top
the list at 85 percent and 76 percent, respectively. Even in New York-Newark-Jersey
City, NY-NJ-PA, 68 percent of homeowners at risk of flood or surge inundation
would not be required to carry flood insurance because they are not located
within a designated FEMA 100-year floodplain.
Additional findings in the CoreLogic storm surge analysis include:
• |
The five states with the highest total number of properties at risk include:
Florida (2,488,277), Louisiana (738,165), New York (466,919), New Jersey (445,928)
and Texas (434,421).
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• |
The five states (including the District of Columbia) with the lowest total
number of properties at risk include: the District of Columbia (3,895), New
Hampshire (10,853), Maine (23,439), Rhode Island (26,558) and Delaware (48,534).
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• |
The five states with the highest value of reconstruction costs for homes at risk
include: Florida($490,403,653,377), New York($182,474,294,695), Louisiana($161,062,467,382),
New Jersey($134,194,963,314) and Virginia($92,001,482,217).
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• |
The five states with the lowest value of reconstruction costs for homes at risk
include: District of Columbia($394,437,173), New Hampshire($2,649,086,294),
Maine($6,629,856,369), Rhode Island($7,389,384,876) and Alabama($10,333,310,460).
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The reconstruction value of the homes exposed to storm surge damage in the Gulf
is much less than the reconstruction value of homes in the Atlantic region, as
indicated in Table 2. The total reconstruction cost value of homes along the Atlantic
coast is nearly $951 billion, which is approximately double the value of at-risk
properties in the Gulf region at just over $545 billion.
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CoreLogic releases storm surge data to enhance understanding of the risk that
hurricane-driven storm surge poses to homes, institutions and economies that are
prone to tropical storms. Fully understanding the number of homes and financial
impact of sustaining storm surge damage is critically important for financial
institutions, corporate entities and local governments to make better informed risk
management decisions. Storm surge data is highly useful for insurance providers and
financial services companies, as it enhances the understanding of potential exposure
to water damage for homes, including those that do not fall within the designated FEMA
flood zones. Recent regulatory guidelines are compelling financial services companies
subject to federal stress testing to understand under-insured or uninsured risks like
storm surge flooding, since exposed properties have a significant risk for default
following an event. More granular insight into storm surge impact is necessary for
preparation and mitigation efforts that can help reduce the amount of damage and loss,
and also improve safety and disaster response.
Table 1 — Residential Exposure by Storm Category for the Entire U.S.
Storm Surge Risk Level |
Total Homes Potentially Affected |
Total Estimated |
Extreme (Affected by a Category 1-5 storm) |
1,698,510 |
$410,311,136,086 |
Very High (Category 2-5) |
1,422,302 |
$328,864,859,770 |
High (Category 3-5) |
1,562,755) |
$358,386,053,3450 |
Moderate (Category 4-5) |
1,159,506 |
$267,920,396,772 |
Low (Category 5) |
669,105 |
$131,010,761,964 |
Total) |
6,512,178) |
$1,496,493,207,937 |
Table 2 — Residential Exposure by Coastal Region
Region |
Atlantic Coast Homes |
Atlantic Coast Structure Damage Exposure (Estimated) |
Gulf Coast Homes (Potential) |
Gulf Coast Structure Damage Exposure (Estimated) |
Extreme |
1,005,544 |
$269,585,189,074 |
692,966 |
$140,725,947,012 |
Very High |
899,461 |
$228,229,456,329 |
522,841 |
$100,635,403,441 |
High |
851,057 |
$214,135,275,085 |
711,698 |
$144,250,778,260 |
Moderate |
677,692 |
$173,729,009,413 |
481,814 |
$94,191,387,359 |
Low |
325,483 |
$65,241,738,808 |
343,622 |
$65,769,023,156 |
Total |
3,759,237 |
$950,920,668,709 |
2,752,941 |
$545,572,539,228 |
Table 3 — State Table (Ranked by Number of Homes at Risk)
Rank |
State |
Extreme |
Very High |
High |
Moderate |
Low |
Total |
1 |
Florida |
789,090 |
459,090 |
519,409 |
347,860 |
372,828 |
2,488,277 |
2 |
Louisiana |
160,744 |
102,347 |
262,340 |
134,588 |
78,146 |
738,165 |
3 |
New York |
128,462 |
114,949 |
132,179 |
91,329 |
N/A |
466,919 |
4 |
New Jersey |
116,613 |
178,037 |
74,284 |
76,994 |
N/A |
445,928 |
5 |
Texas |
44,569 |
70,732 |
110,487 |
114,945 |
93,688 |
434,421 |
6 |
Virginia |
93,969 |
115,232 |
98,190 |
83,768 |
27,353 |
418,512 |
7 |
South Carolina |
99,884 |
52,358 |
59,113 |
41,490 |
27,349 |
280,194 |
8 |
North Carolina |
72,597 |
51,016 |
48,588 |
40,074 |
36,889 |
249,164 |
9 |
Massachusetts |
31,023 |
65,124 |
73,781 |
48,985 |
N/A |
218,913 |
10 |
Maryland |
47,825 |
39,807 |
27,740 |
28,719 |
N/A |
144,091 |
11 |
Georgia |
38,891 |
48,394 |
26,513 |
18,136 |
8,087 |
140,021 |
12 |
Pennsylvania |
1,468 |
45,582 |
37,860 |
32,007 |
N/A |
116,917 |
13 |
Mississippi |
15,071 |
20,871 |
28,644 |
26,408 |
10,828 |
101,822 |
14 |
Connecticut |
25,227 |
23,350 |
22,187 |
26,462 |
N/A |
97,226 |
15 |
Alabama |
7,365 |
12,765 |
10,182 |
14,080 |
13,937 |
58,329 |
16 |
Delaware |
11,497 |
10,416 |
13,016 |
13,605 |
N/A |
48,534 |
17 |
Rhode Island |
6,635 |
5,972 |
6,731 |
7,220 |
N/A |
26,558 |
18 |
Maine |
5,2545 |
2,9425 |
7,5585 |
7,6855 |
N/A5 |
23,4398 |
19 |
New Hampshire |
2,326 |
3,317 |
3,194 |
2,016 |
N/A |
10,853 |
20 |
District of Columbia |
N/A |
1 |
759 |
3,135 |
N/A |
3,895 |
Total |
1,698,510 |
1,422,302 |
1,562,755 |
1,159,506 |
669,106 |
6,512,178 |
Table 4 — Reconstruction Value of Properties at Risk by State
Rank |
State |
Extreme |
Very High |
High |
Moderate |
Low |
Total |
1 |
Florida |
$165,897,104,806 |
$87,833,392,383 |
$100,149,415,929 |
$66,285,325,433 |
$70,238,414,826 |
$490,403,653,377 |
2 |
New York |
$52,507,586,381 |
$44,946,290,850 |
$49,330,325,343 |
$35,690,092,121 |
N/A |
$182,474,294,695 |
3 |
Louisiana |
$32,093,743,120 |
$20,863,168,290 |
$60,324,715,609 |
$30,195,498,766 |
$17,585,341,597 |
$161,062,467,382 |
4 |
New Jersey |
$35,481,183,707 |
$52,757,497,109 |
$22,040,754,156 |
$23,915,528,342 |
N/A |
$134,194,963,314 |
5 |
Virginia |
$21,841,973,286 |
$24,727,761,843 |
$21,125,036,730 |
$17,984,142,912 |
$6,322,567,446 |
$92,001,482,2174 |
6 |
Texas |
$7,087,911,852 |
$10,934,862,299 |
$19,093,100,616 |
$21,596,543,413 |
$17,844,003,459 |
$76,556,421,6394 |
7 |
South Carolina |
$27,753,414,114 |
$12,587,049,770 |
$13,178,862,500 |
$9,042,760,201 |
$5,714,959,963 |
$68,277,046,548 |
8 |
Massachusetts |
$9,724,029,035 |
$17,005,251,525 |
$21,270,736,012 |
$14,998,153,704 |
N/A |
$62,998,170,276 |
9 |
North Carolina |
$15,240,651,298 |
$11,140,071,525 |
$10,815,898,891 |
$8,527,781,798 |
$7,845,320,710 |
$53,569,724,222 |
10 |
Maryland |
$11,856,448,820 |
$9,687,832,004 |
$6,433,018,198 |
$6,846,887,233 |
N/A |
$34,824,186,255 |
11 |
Connecticut |
$8,972,737,674 |
$8,000,267,149 |
$7,249,691,647 |
$8,755,618,092 |
N/A |
$32,978,314,562 |
12 |
Georgia |
$10,073,078,318 |
$9,827,457,212 |
$4,910,948,595 |
$3,312,344,274 |
$1,359,659,962 |
$29,483,488,361 |
13 |
Mississippi |
$2,909,086,132 |
$3,848,632,388 |
$5,094,422,106 |
$4,498,942,887 |
$1,793,435,179 |
$18,144,518,692 |
14 |
Pennsylvania |
$321,556,789 |
$5,809,547,530 |
$6,184,854,639 |
$4,806,610,676 |
N/A |
$17,122,569,634 |
15 |
Delaware |
$3,714,154,308 |
$3,297,365,039 |
$4,157,600,924 |
$3,836,711,320 |
N/A |
$15,005,831,591 |
16 |
Alabama |
$1,294,626,444 |
$2,345,175,836 |
$1,824,810,598 |
$2,561,638,760 |
$2,307,058,822 |
$10,333,310,460 |
17 |
Rhode Island |
$1,704,012,530 |
$1,755,100,803 |
$1,932,489,875 |
$1,997,781,668 |
N/A |
$7,389,384,876 |
18 |
Maine0 |
$1,404,632,3580 |
$820,799,9010 |
$2,195,324,3090 |
$2,209,099,8010 |
N/A0 |
$6,629,856,3690 |
19 |
New Hampshire |
$433,205,114 |
$677,219,225 |
$972,432,591 |
$566,229,364 |
N/A |
$2,649,086,294 |
20 |
District of Columbia |
N/A |
117,089 |
$101,614,077 |
$292,706,007 |
N/A |
$394,437,173 |
Total |
$410,311,136,086 |
$328,864,859,770 |
$358,386,053,345 |
$267,920,396,772 |
$131,010,761,964 |
$1,496,493,207,937 |
Table 5 — Storm Surge Risk for Top 15 Metro Areas
Rank |
Metropolitan Area |
Total Properties Potentially Affected by All Categories of Hurricane |
Total Reconstruction Value |
1 |
New York, NY |
687,412 |
$251,038,846,466 |
2 |
Miami, FL |
562,410 |
$103,160,570,812 |
3 |
Tampa, FL |
444,7650 |
$79,149,326,645 |
4 |
Virginia Beach, NC |
394,705 |
$87,178,838,156 |
5 |
New Orleans, LA |
381,149 |
$85,679,653,561 |
6 |
Cape Coral, FL |
299,508 |
$60,430,683,073 |
7 |
Bradenton, FL |
227,821 |
$42,955,130,837 |
8 |
Houston, TX |
216,880 |
$41,903,647,756 |
9 |
Philadelphia, PA |
213,668 |
$42,204,432,570 |
10 |
Naples, FL |
177,651 |
$41,259,312,520 |
11 |
Jacksonville, FL |
174,180 |
$36,509,802,458 |
12 |
Boston, MA |
169,102 |
$46,713,411,965 |
13 |
Charleston, SC |
108,045 |
$27,880,315,028 |
14 |
Lafayette, LA |
106,166 |
$21,266,042,348 |
15 |
Myrtle Beach, NC |
104,707 |
$19,373,709,040 |
Total |
4,268,169 |
$986,703,723,235 |
Methodology The data used for the 2014 CoreLogic storm surge analysis to determine
the number of homes at risk of storm surge inundation, as well as the estimated
reconstruction value of these residential structures, has been expanded. Data for
10 additional categories under the single-family residence classification has been
added to include mobile homes, duplexes, cabins and manufactured homes, among others.
These new categories, which were not previously captured, allow for an improved and
more complete database, and thus account for the increase in the number of single-family
residences identified as at risk.
In addition, the estimation of property values CoreLogic uses for single-family
residences now includes Marshall & Swift/Boeckh (MSB) reconstruction valuation data.
CoreLogic acquired MSB in late March 2014, and new valuations in this report are derived
from the MSB reconstruction cost estimates rather than market valuation data.
Reconstruction cost estimates more accurately reflect the actual cost of damage or
destruction of residential buildings that would occur from hurricane-driven storm surge
since they include the cost of materials and labor needed to rebuild, and also factor
in geographical pricing differences. Actual land values are not included in the estimates.
The values are based on 100-percent or total destruction of the residential structure.
Depending upon the amount of surge water from a given storm, there may be less than
100 percent damage to the residence, which would result in a lower realized reconstruction
cost. In the event that reconstruction costs were not available, CoreLogic Reconstruction
Cost Industry Benchmark averages were used to calculate property-level values.
The updated data CoreLogic used to determine the number of homes located in storm surge
risk areas and their associated values is intended to provide a more complete and accurate
interpretation of the threat of hurricane-driven flooding across the Gulf and Atlantic
Coasts of the U.S. While the number of homes and values can regularly fluctuate, this more
broadly defined and comprehensive data accurately represents potential damage posed by
storm surge.
Storm surge is triggered primarily by the high winds and low pressure associated with hurricanes,
which cause water to amass inside a storm as it moves across the ocean before releasing as a
powerful rush overland when the hurricane moves onshore. In addition to the property damage and
potential lives lost to flooding, the speed and force associated with storm surge waves can
significantly increase geographic and economic impact in hurricane disaster areas.
To learn more about hurricane-driven storm surge, visit:
http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/storm-surge-report.aspx
About CoreLogic CoreLogic CLGX -0.91% is a leading global property information, analytics
and data-enabled services provider. The company's combined data from public, contributory
and proprietary sources includes over 3.3 billion records spanning more than 40 years,
providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit,
tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic
serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public
sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow
technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and
manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine,
Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more
information, please visitwww.corelogic.com.
CORELOGIC and the CoreLogic logo are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.
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